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JEFF GOLDSMITH

Jeff Goldsmith is National Advisor for Navigant Healthcare and Associate Professor of Public Health Sciences at the University of Virginia.  He also lectures in the MBA program at Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.  He is a national expert on health policy, technology forecasting and the future of health services, and has worked across the industry:  hospitals and health systems, but also physician groups, health plans, supply, biotechnology and information technology firms, as well as private equity and venture investors.   Early in his career, he worked for the Governor of Illinois and for the Dean/Vice President of the University of Chicago Medical Center. He founded his firm, Health Futures, Inc., in 1982.

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Long Range Forecasting (5-20 years): The main drivers of long term change in the health system are scientific and technological advances (a Goldsmith obsession), demographic/ generational change and structural changes in the economy.  Jeff has an impressive forecasting track record, predicting both downturns in inpatient hospital use (mid-1980’s and mid-2000s) before they occurred, as well as the emergence of what is now called mHealth or telemedicine (in 1986) and context-aware, intelligent clinical information systems (also in 1986).  He has an excellent technical grasp of complex domains like biotechnology and diagnostic imaging, and can explain them in English to a lay audience.  

What is Happening to the Health System Right Now:  The US health system is about $3.3 trillion, the size and complexity of a large industrial nation. It is also regionally fragmented and i territorial, which limits the scope of national trends (see the relevance of terroir to health innovation: http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2016/09/29/fail-to-scale-why-great-ideas-in-health-care-dont-thrive-everywhere/) . Like less complex sectors of the economy (finance, tech, consumer goods), the health system is riddled with internet driven memes and waves of group think. Jeff believes that both public policy and corporate strategy should be driven by data in context, rather than what sounds good or what everybody believes.  He intensively tracks both regional and national data on health care cost, use, payment and insurance coverage.

Health Policy:  Jeff has been actively engaged in health policy analysis for 42 years (since 1974).   He is a member of the Editorial Board of Health Affairs, and writes and blogs actively on health policy and politics  http://healthaffairs.org/blog/author/goldsmith/ . He has both drafted and analyzed legislation and has a superb network of relationships with health policy specialists across partisan lines.  He is writing a book on Health Policy: 2020 with Timothy Jost, the nation’s leading analyst of health reform law.  

Jeff presently has lectures on the “U.S. Health System in 2036” as well as on “What if the Crowd is Wrong” on the gaps between actual data trends and popular industry memes such as “disruptive innovation” and “population health.”  However, the vast majority of his talks are customized to the audience, industry segment and region of the country.  And except for large audiences, most of his “presentations” are group interactions rather than set piece speeches.

Speaker Topics

  • Future of Health Care

Speaker Type

  • Breakout Presenter
  • Keynote Presenter
  • Presentation Moderator